Use of Bluetooth contact tracing technology to model COVID-19 quarantine policies in high-risk closed populations.

Containment measures in high-risk closed settings, like migrant worker (MW) dormitories, are critical for mitigating emerging infectious disease outbreaks and protecting potentially vulnerable populations in outbreaks such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The direct impact of social distancing measures can be assessed through wearable contact tracing devices. Here, we developed an individual-based model using data collected through a Bluetooth wearable device that collected 33.6M and 52.8M contact events in two dormitories in Singapore, one apartment style and the other a barrack style, to assess the impact of measures to reduce the social contact of cases and their contacts. The simulation of highly detailed contact networks accounts for different infrastructural levels, including room, floor, block, and dormitory, and intensity in terms of being regular or transient. Via a branching process model, we then simulated outbreaks that matched the prevalence during the COVID-19 outbreak in the two dormitories and explored alternative scenarios for control. We found that strict isolation of all cases and quarantine of all contacts would lead to very low prevalence but that quarantining only regular contacts would lead to only marginally higher prevalence but substantially fewer total man-hours lost in quarantine. Reducing the density of contacts by 30% through the construction of additional dormitories was modelled to reduce the prevalence by 14 and 9% under smaller and larger outbreaks, respectively. Wearable contact tracing devices may be used not just for contact tracing efforts but also to inform alternative containment measures in high-risk closed settings.

The illusion of personal health decisions for infectious disease management: disease spread in social contact networks.

Close contacts between individuals provide opportunities for the transmission of diseases, including COVID-19. While individuals take part in many different types of interactions, including those with classmates, co-workers and household members, it is the conglomeration of all of these interactions that produces the complex social contact network interconnecting individuals across the population. Thus, while an individual might decide their own risk tolerance in response to a threat of infection, the consequences of such decisions are rarely so confined, propagating far beyond any one person. We assess the effect of different population-level risk-tolerance regimes, population structure in the form of age and household-size distributions, and different interaction types on epidemic spread in plausible human contact networks to gain insight into how contact network structure affects pathogen spread through a population. In particular, we find that behavioural changes by vulnerable individuals in isolation are insufficient to reduce those individuals' infection risk and that population structure can have varied and counteracting effects on epidemic outcomes. The relative impact of each interaction type was contingent on assumptions underlying contact network construction, stressing the importance of empirical validation. Taken together, these results promote a nuanced understanding of disease spread on contact networks, with implications for public health strategies.

Epidemic dynamics in census-calibrated modular contact network.

Network-based models are apt for understanding epidemic dynamics due to their inherent ability to model the heterogeneity of interactions in the contemporary world of intense human connectivity. We propose a framework to create a wire-frame that mimics the social contact network of the population in a geography by lacing it with demographic information. The framework results in a modular network with small-world topology that accommodates density variations and emulates human interactions in family, social, and work spaces. When loaded with suitable economic, social, and urban data shaping patterns of human connectance, the network emerges as a potent decision-making instrument for urban planners, demographers, and social scientists. We employ synthetic networks to experiment in a controlled environment and study the impact of zoning, density variations, and population mobility on the epidemic variables using a variant of the SEIR model. Our results reveal that these demographic factors have a characteristic influence on social contact patterns, manifesting as distinct epidemic dynamics. Subsequently, we present a real-world COVID-19 case study for three Indian states by creating corresponding surrogate social contact networks using available census data. The case study validates that the demography-laced modular contact network reduces errors in the estimates of epidemic variables.

Contact network analysis of COVID-19 Delta variant outbreak in urban China -based on 2,050 confirmed cases in Xi'an, China.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this paper is to study how the Delta variant spread in a China city, and to what extent the non-pharmaceutical prevention measures of local government be effective by reviewing the contact network of COVID-19 cases in Xi'an, China. METHODS: We organize the case reports of the Shaanxi Health Commission into a database by text coding and convert them into a network matrix. Then we construct a dynamic contact network for the corresponding analysis and calculate network indicators. we analyze the cases' dynamic contact network structure and intervals between diagnosis time and isolation time by using data visualization, network analysis method, and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression. RESULTS: The contact network for this outbreak in Xi'an is very sparse, with a density of less than 0.0001. The contact network is a scale-free network. The average degree centrality is 0.741 and the average PageRank score is 0.0005. The network generated from a single source of infection contains 1371 components. We construct three variables of intervals and analyze the trend of intervals during the outbreak. The mean interval (interval 1) between case diagnosis time and isolation time is - 3.9 days. The mean of the interval (interval 2) between the infector's diagnosis time and the infectee's diagnosis time is 4.2 days. The mean of the interval (interval 3) between infector isolation time and infectee isolation time is 2.9 days. Among the three intervals, only interval 1 has a significant positive correlation with degree centrality. CONCLUSIONS: By integrating COVID-19 case reports of a Chinese city, we construct a contact network to analyze the dispersion of the outbreak. The network is a scale-free network with multiple hidden pathways that are not detected. The intervals of patients in this outbreak decreased compared to the beginning of the outbreak in 2020. City lockdown has a significant effect on the intervals that can affect patients' network centrality. Our study highlights the value of case report text. By linking different reports, we can quickly analyze the spread of the epidemic in an urban area.

Transmission characteristic and dynamic analysis of COVID-19 on contact network with Tianjin city in China.

The outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) has had a profound impact on people's lives around the world, and the spread of COVID-19 between individuals were mainly caused by contact transmission of the social networks. In order to analyze the network transmission of COVID-19, we constructed a case contact network using available contact data of 136 early diagnosed cases in Tianjin. Based on the constructed case contact network, the structural characteristics of the network were first analyzed, and then the centrality of the nodes was analyzed to find the key nodes. In addition, since the constructed network may contain missing edges and false edges, link prediction algorithms were used to reconstruct the network. Finally, to understand the spread of COVID-19 in the network, an individual-based susceptible-latent-exposed-infected-recover (SLEIR) model is established and simulated in the network. The results showed that the disease peak scale caused by the node with the highest centrality is larger, and reducing the contact infection rate of the infected person during the incubation period has a greater impact on the peak disease scale.

Annotating Protein Structures for Understanding SARS-CoV-2 Interactome

Protein Contact Network (PCN) is an emerging paradigm for modelling protein structure. A common approach to interpreting such data is through network-based analyses. It has been shown that clustering analysis may discover allostery in PCN. Nevertheless Network Embedding has shown good performances in discovering hidden communities and structures in network. SARS-CoV-2 proteins, and in particular S protein, have a modular structure that need to be annotated to understand complex mechanism of infections. Such annotations, and in particular the highlighting of regions participating in the binding of human ACE2 and TMPRSS, may help the design of tailored strategy for preventing and blocking infection. In this work, we compare some approaches for graph embedding with respect to some classical clustering approaches for annotating protein structures. Results shows that embedding may reveal interesting structure that constitute the starting point for further analysis. © 2022 CEUR-WS. All rights reserved.

Epidemic Spread Optimization for Disease Containment with NPIs and Vaccination

The potential impact of epidemics, e.g., COVID-19, H1N1, and SARS, is severe on public health, the economy, education, and society. Before effective treatments are available and vaccines are fully deployed, combining Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) and vaccination strategies is the main approaches to contain the epidemic or live with the virus. Therefore, research for deciding the best containment operations to contain the epidemic based on various objectives and concerns is much needed. In this paper, we formulate the problem of Containment Operation Optimization Design (COOD) that optimizes the epidemic containment by carefully analyzing contacts between individuals. We prove the hardness of COOD and propose an approximation algorithm, named Multi-Type Action Scheduling (MTAS), with the ideas of Infected Ratio, Contact Risk, and Severity Score to select and schedule appropriate actions that implement NPIs and allocate vaccines for different groups of people. We evaluate MTAS on real epidemic data of a population with real contacts and compare it against existing approaches in epidemic and misinformation containment. Experimental results demonstrate that MTAS improves at least 200% over the baselines in the test case of sustaining public health and the economy. Moreover, the applicability of MTAS to various epidemics of different dynamics is demonstrated, i.e., MTAS can effectively slow down the peak and reduce the number of infected individuals at the peak. © 2022 IEEE.

GSI: An Influential Node Detection Approach in Heterogeneous Network Using Covid-19 as Use Case

The growth of COVID-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, has turned into an unprecedented pandemic in the last century. It is crucial to identify superspreading nodes to prevent the pandemic's progress. Most available superspreader identification techniques consider only a single or few network metrics related to the complex network's topological structure. Furthermore, it is more challenging to determine influential spreaders from heterogeneous structures of networks. In a disease transmission network, the degree of heterogeneity is essential to locate the path of the infection spread. Therefore, it is required to have an extended degree of centrality to collect information from various neighborhood levels. This article presents an approach, namely, global structure influence (GSI), which considers network nodes' local and global influence. This method can gather information from multiple levels of the neighborhood. Evaluation of our proposed method is done by considering different types of networks, i.e., social networks, highly heterogeneous human contact networks, and epidemiological networks, and also by using the benchmark susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model. The GSI technique provides real- spreading dynamics across various network structures and has outperformed the baseline techniques with an average Kendall's tau improvement range from 0.017 to 0.278. This study will help to identify the superspeaders in real applications, where pathogens spread quickly because of close contact, such as the recently witnessed COVID-19 pandemic.

Modelling the impact of social distancing and targeted vaccination on the spread of COVID-19 through a real city-scale contact network.

We use mobile device data to construct empirical interpersonal physical contact networks in the city of Portland, Oregon, both before and after social distancing measures were enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic. These networks reveal how social distancing measures and the public's reaction to the incipient pandemic affected the connectivity patterns within the city. We find that as the pandemic developed there was a substantial decrease in the number of individuals with many contacts. We further study the impact of these different network topologies on the spread of COVID-19 by simulating an SEIR epidemic model over these networks and find that the reduced connectivity greatly suppressed the epidemic. We then investigate how the epidemic responds when part of the population is vaccinated, and we compare two vaccination distribution strategies, both with and without social distancing. Our main result is that the heavy-tailed degree distribution of the contact networks causes a targeted vaccination strategy that prioritizes high-contact individuals to reduce the number of cases far more effectively than a strategy that vaccinates individuals at random. Combining both targeted vaccination and social distancing leads to the greatest reduction in cases, and we also find that the marginal benefit of a targeted strategy as compared to a random strategy exceeds the marginal benefit of social distancing for reducing the number of cases. These results have important implications for ongoing vaccine distribution efforts worldwide.

A knowledge graph-based method for epidemic contact tracing in public transportation.

Contact tracing is an effective measure by which to prevent further infections in public transportation systems. Considering the large number of people infected during the COVID-19 pandemic, digital contact tracing is expected to be quicker and more effective than traditional manual contact tracing, which is slow and labor-intensive. In this study, we introduce a knowledge graph-based framework for fusing multi-source data from public transportation systems to construct contact networks, design algorithms to model epidemic spread, and verify the validity of an effective digital contact tracing method. In particular, we take advantage of the trip chaining model to integrate multi-source public transportation data to construct a knowledge graph. A contact network is then extracted from the constructed knowledge graph, and a breadth-first search algorithm is developed to efficiently trace infected passengers in the contact network. The proposed framework and algorithms are validated by a case study using smart card transaction data from transit systems in Xiamen, China. We show that the knowledge graph provides an efficient framework for contact tracing with the reconstructed contact network, and the average positive tracing rate is over 96%.

Complex Contact Network of Patients at the Beginning of an Epidemic Outbreak: An Analysis Based on 1218 COVID-19 Cases in China.

The spread of viruses essentially occurs through the interaction and contact between people, which is closely related to the network of interpersonal relationships. Based on the epidemiological investigations of 1218 COVID-19 cases in eight areas of China, we use text analysis, social network analysis and visualization methods to construct a dynamic contact network of the epidemic. We analyze the corresponding demographic characteristics, network indicators, and structural characteristics of this network. We found that more than 65% of cases are likely to be infected by a strong relationship, and nearly 40% of cases have family members infected at the same time. The overall connectivity of the contact network is low, but there are still some clustered infections. In terms of the degree distribution, most cases' degrees are concentrated between 0 and 2, which is relatively low, and only a few ones have a higher degree value. The degree distribution also conforms to the power law distribution, indicating the network is a scale-free network. There are 17 cases with a degree greater than 10, and these cluster infections are usually caused by local transmission. The first implication of this research is we find that the COVID-19 spread is closely related to social structures by applying computational sociological methods for infectious disease studies; the second implication is to confirm that text analysis can quickly visualize the spread trajectory at the beginning of an epidemic.

Modelling Prevention and Control Strategies for COVID-19 Propagation with Patient Contact Networks

Due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, there is an urgent need to research the spread of disease and prevention strategies. As the spread of COVID-19 is closely related to the structure of human social networks, there are a lot of existing works that use a topological structure to analyze the characteristics of spread. Several studies have proposed certain strategies to prevent COVID-19 by analyzing the topological structure of the contact network, but most of the existing works have focused on detecting dense groups such as cliques;however, as the clique is the densest subgraph, it is easy for it to be influenced when the data has noise or lacks some edges. To reduce the influences of noise or lacks of data, there is a concept of gamma-quasicliques is considered in this paper. gamma-quasi-cliques is less restrictive and denser than cliques, and it is thus more suitable for analyzing and detecting communities in social networks to identify the close contacts of patients and achieve timely control under high levels of epidemic prevention strategies. Therefore, this paper proposed an algorithm based on the traditional formal concept analysis method for detecting gamma-quasi-cliques, and also designed a model for detecting and mining close contacts and sub-close (secondary) contacts in the patient's contact network. Consequently, manual intervention occurs in response to the asymptomatic close or sub-close contacts detected by this model, and nucleic acid testing and home isolation are performed to prevent the widespread of COVID-19. In our experiments, a real-life contact network is used to determine the ideal value of gamma for the detection of quasi-clique, which is 0.6, and the results show the validity and feasibility of the model.

Analyses of Contact Networks of Community Dogs on a University Campus in Nakhon Pathom, Thailand.

Free-roaming dogs have been identified as an important reservoir of rabies in many countries including Thailand. There is a need for novel insights to improve current rabies control strategies in these countries. Network analysis is commonly used to study the interactions between individuals or organizations and has been applied in preventive veterinary medicine. However, contact networks of domestic free-roaming dogs are mostly unexplored. The objective of this study was to explore the contact network of free-roaming dogs residing on a university campus. Three one-mode networks were created using co-appearances of dogs as edges. A two-mode network was created by associating the dog with the pre-defined area it was seen in. The average number of contacts a dog had was 6.74. The normalized degree for the weekend network was significantly higher compared to the weekday network. All one-mode networks displayed small-world network characteristics. Most dogs were observed in only one area. The average number of dogs which shared an area was 8.67. In this study, we demonstrated the potential of observational methods to create networks of contacts. The network information acquired can be further used in network modeling and designing targeted disease control programs.

COVID-19 Lockdowns May Reduce Resistance Genes Diversity in the Human Microbiome and the Need for Antibiotics.

Recently, much attention has been paid to the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet bacterial resistance to antibiotics remains a serious and unresolved public health problem that kills hundreds of thousands of people annually, being an insidious and silent pandemic. To contain the spreading of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, populations confined and tightened hygiene measures. We performed this study with computer simulations and by using mobility data of mobile phones from Google in the region of Lisbon, Portugal, comprising 3.7 million people during two different lockdown periods, scenarios of 40 and 60% mobility reduction. In the simulations, we assumed that the network of physical contact between people is that of a small world and computed the antibiotic resistance in human microbiomes after 180 days in the simulation. Our simulations show that reducing human contacts drives a reduction in the diversity of antibiotic resistance genes in human microbiomes. Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn's pairwise tests show very strong evidence (p < 0.000, adjusted using the Bonferroni correction) of a difference between the four confinement regimes. The proportion of variability in the ranked dependent variable accounted for by the confinement variable was η2 = 0.148, indicating a large effect of confinement on the diversity of antibiotic resistance. We have shown that confinement and hygienic measures, in addition to reducing the spread of pathogenic bacteria in a human network, also reduce resistance and the need to use antibiotics.

Seesaw scenarios of lockdown for COVID-19 pandemic: Simulation and failure analysis.

The ongoing COVOD-19(SARS-CoV-2) outbreak has had a devastating impact on the economy, education and businesses. In this paper, the behavior of an epidemic is simulated on different contact networks. Herein, it is assumed that the infection may be transmitted at each contact from an infected person to a susceptible individual with a given probability. The probability of transmitting the disease may change due to the individuals' social behavior or interventions prescribed by the authorities. We utilized simulation on the contact networks to demonstrate how seesaw scenarios of lockdown can curb infection and level the pandemic without maximum pressure on the poor societies. Soft scenarios consist of closing businesses 2, 3, and 4 days in between with four levels of lockdown respected by 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of the population. The findings reveal that the outbreak can be flattened under softer alternatives instead of a doomsday scenario of complete lockdown. More specifically, it is turned out that proposed soft lockdown strategies can flatten up to 120% of the pandemic course. It is also revealed that transmission probability has a crucial role in the course of the infection, growth rate of the infection, and the number of infected individuals.

Optimizing COVID-19 surveillance in long-term care facilities: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Long-term care facilities (LTCFs) are vulnerable to outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Timely epidemiological surveillance is essential for outbreak response, but is complicated by a high proportion of silent (non-symptomatic) infections and limited testing resources. METHODS: We used a stochastic, individual-based model to simulate transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) along detailed inter-individual contact networks describing patient-staff interactions in a real LTCF setting. We simulated distribution of nasopharyngeal swabs and reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests using clinical and demographic indications and evaluated the efficacy and resource-efficiency of a range of surveillance strategies, including group testing (sample pooling) and testing cascades, which couple (i) testing for multiple indications (symptoms, admission) with (ii) random daily testing. RESULTS: In the baseline scenario, randomly introducing a silent SARS-CoV-2 infection into a 170-bed LTCF led to large outbreaks, with a cumulative 86 (95% uncertainty interval 6-224) infections after 3 weeks of unmitigated transmission. Efficacy of symptom-based screening was limited by lags to symptom onset and silent asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission. Across scenarios, testing upon admission detected just 34-66% of patients infected upon LTCF entry, and also missed potential introductions from staff. Random daily testing was more effective when targeting patients than staff, but was overall an inefficient use of limited resources. At high testing capacity (> 10 tests/100 beds/day), cascades were most effective, with a 19-36% probability of detecting outbreaks prior to any nosocomial transmission, and 26-46% prior to first onset of COVID-19 symptoms. Conversely, at low capacity (< 2 tests/100 beds/day), group testing strategies detected outbreaks earliest. Pooling randomly selected patients in a daily group test was most likely to detect outbreaks prior to first symptom onset (16-27%), while pooling patients and staff expressing any COVID-like symptoms was the most efficient means to improve surveillance given resource limitations, compared to the reference requiring only 6-9 additional tests and 11-28 additional swabs to detect outbreaks 1-6 days earlier, prior to an additional 11-22 infections. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 surveillance is challenged by delayed or absent clinical symptoms and imperfect diagnostic sensitivity of standard RT-PCR tests. In our analysis, group testing was the most effective and efficient COVID-19 surveillance strategy for resource-limited LTCFs. Testing cascades were even more effective given ample testing resources. Increasing testing capacity and updating surveillance protocols accordingly could facilitate earlier detection of emerging outbreaks, informing a need for urgent intervention in settings with ongoing nosocomial transmission.

COVID-19 Spread in Saudi Arabia: Modeling, Simulation and Analysis.

The novel coronavirus Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)-Coronavirus-2 (CoV-2) has resulted in an ongoing pandemic and has affected over 200 countries around the world. Mathematical epidemic models can be used to predict the course of an epidemic and develop methods for controlling it. As social contact is a key factor in disease spreading, modeling epidemics on contact networks has been increasingly used. In this work, we propose a simulation model for the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Saudi Arabia using a network-based epidemic model. We generated a contact network that captures realistic social behaviors and dynamics of individuals in Saudi Arabia. The proposed model was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the control measures employed by the Saudi government, to predict the future dynamics of the disease in Saudi Arabia according to different scenarios, and to investigate multiple vaccination strategies. Our results suggest that Saudi Arabia would have faced a nationwide peak of the outbreak on 21 April 2020 with a total of approximately 26 million infections had it not imposed strict control measures. The results also indicate that social distancing plays a crucial role in determining the future local dynamics of the epidemic. Our results also show that the closure of schools and mosques had the maximum impact on delaying the epidemic peak and slowing down the infection rate. If a vaccine does not become available and no social distancing is practiced from 10 June 2020, our predictions suggest that the epidemic will end in Saudi Arabia at the beginning of November with over 13 million infected individuals, and it may take only 15 days to end the epidemic after 70% of the population receive a vaccine.

Using the contact network model and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to reconstruct the COVID-19 spread on the "Diamond Princess".

Traditional compartmental models such as SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) assume that the epidemic transmits in a homogeneous population, but the real contact patterns in epidemics are heterogeneous. Employing a more realistic model that considers heterogeneous contact is consequently necessary. Here, we use a contact network to reconstruct unprotected, protected contact, and airborne spread to simulate the two-stages outbreak of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) on the "Diamond Princess" cruise ship. We employ Bayesian inference and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to estimate the model parameters and quantify the uncertainties by the ensemble simulation technique. During the early epidemic with intensive social contacts, the results reveal that the average transmissibility t was 0.026 and the basic reproductive number R 0 was 6.94, triple that in the WHO report, indicating that all people would be infected in one month. The t and R 0 decreased to 0.0007 and 0.2 when quarantine was implemented. The reconstruction suggests that diluting the airborne virus concentration in closed settings is useful in addition to isolation, and high-risk susceptible should follow rigorous prevention measures in case exposed. This study can provide useful implications for control and prevention measures for the other cruise ships and closed settings.